October 2025 Real Estate Market Update for Athens, GA
By Scott Talley, Owner/Broker – 5Market Realty
Scott Talley is the owner and broker of Five Market Realty in Athens, GA, known for producing authoritative real estate market reports and guiding clients through the Athens-area housing market with clarity and expertise.
Summary of Real Estate Market Conditions
The Athens and Oconee real estate markets are transitioning into a healthier, more balanced phase after several years of unusually rapid price appreciation and limited inventory. Although year-to-date sales are down and days on market have increased, these trends are creating better opportunities for buyers as home price growth moderates and listing inventory rises. Local data is now reflecting national patterns: slower appreciation, higher inventory, and renewed buyer demand. With the spread between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates beginning to contract, rates are expected to gradually improve through 2025 and 2026. These conditions suggest that the real estate recession impacting industry professionals since 2022 is easing and that a more normal, sustainable housing market is returning.
Full Analysis
I’m Scott Talley, owner and broker at Five Market Realty. If you follow our content, you know I provide regular updates on what’s happening in the Athens and Oconee real estate markets. In this report, I’ll walk through the latest numbers, explain the shifts we’re seeing, and share why I believe we are entering a much healthier market cycle.
“We’re entering what I believe is a much healthier, more normal direction for our real estate market.”
The Four Key Metrics I Track Every Year
To keep our analysis consistent and useful, I follow these four core indicators year after year:
- Total new listings
- Average days on market
- Average sold price
- Total homes sold
Year-to-Date Market Data for Athens and Oconee
Listings and Sales Activity
Here’s where we stand year-to-date:
- New Listings: Just over 1,700 (down 2% from last year but higher than 2023)
- Average Days on Market: Up 23% to almost 60 days
- Average Sold Price: Up only 1.5% to $501,000
- Total Home Sales: Down nearly 9% to about 1,170
While the raw numbers indicate a slowdown, this is precisely the type of cooling the market needed after several years of intense competition and rapid price growth.
“In the long run, this cooling is good news. It was necessary.”
September Market Snapshot
Looking at September over the past three years gives us even more insight:
- New Listings: Down more than 9%
- Days on Market: Up 20%
- Average Sale Price: Down 6% to $495,000
- Total Home Sales: Down 14% year-over-year
Interestingly, despite this decline in September’s data, we have not felt a slowdown inside our company. At Five Market Realty, we saw increased activity in August, September, and October, with more contracts and more buyers entering the market.
“What we’re feeling in our office is very different from what these isolated monthly statistics show.”
Current Inventory Levels: Higher Than 2023
Even though fall typically brings seasonal drops in inventory, the number of homes on the market is still 10.5 percent higher than last year. We’re currently seeing about 411 active listings, down from summer but still above 2023 levels. This added inventory is a significant factor in why buyers are starting to return.
What Appreciation Trends Tell Us
To understand where we are today, we need to look back at appreciation patterns in Clarke and Oconee counties.
2016 to 2020: Stable, Predictable Growth
During this period:
- Prices rose from $235,000 to about $301,000
- Average annual appreciation was just under 6 percent
This was healthy, sustainable, and predictable growth.
2020 to 2024: The Unsustainable Price Surge
From 2020 to 2024:
- Prices jumped from $355,000 to $494,000
- Average annual appreciation surged to 11.5 percent
This was a dramatic and unsustainable trajectory fueled by unique market conditions.
2024 to 2025: Returning to Stability
Looking ahead:
- Prices are expected to rise from $494,000 to $507,000
- This represents a more modest 2.5 percent appreciation
“Flattening prices are what needed to happen. Buyers finally have a chance to re-enter the market.”
National Trends Mirror Local Market Conditions
Keeping Current Matters data confirms what we’re seeing locally:
- Home price growth has dropped from nearly 7 percent (January 2024) to 3.7 percent (September 2024)
- Projected national appreciation for July 2025 is 2.3 percent
- National inventory has climbed above 1 million homes, the highest level since 2019
These indicators show the national market is also normalizing.
Economic Factors Driving Market Behavior
Inflation and Employment
- Inflation remains around 2.9 percent, above the Federal Reserve’s target
- Unemployment has risen to 4.3 percent, influencing Fed decisions
The Fed is balancing inflation control with a softening economy, leading to recent rate cuts.
Interest Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Spread
Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the 10-year treasury yield.
Here’s what the data shows:
- Historical average spread: 1.76 percent
- Recent spread (2023–2024): about 2.6 percent, which inflated mortgage rates
- Current spread: 2.10 percent, finally trending downward
“If we returned to the historic spread today, we’d see mortgage rates around 5.96 percent. That’s how much room there is for improvement.”
Forecasts show the 10-year treasury could fall toward 3 percent by 2026, supporting further rate improvement.
Why I Believe the Real Estate Recession Is Ending
Since early 2022, the real estate industry has been in its own recession, even while the broader economy appeared healthy. But with rising inventory, slowing appreciation, and more buyers re-entering the market, I believe we are moving past that period.
In today’s market:
- Sellers are giving slightly more concessions than they did a year ago
- Buyers are stretching a bit more to secure the home they want
This is exactly what a stable, functioning housing market looks like.
Buyer Activity Is Increasing
One of the most encouraging signs is that we are seeing more activity this fall than we normally see in the spring. Contracts are up, showings are strengthening, and buyer confidence is improving.
“Buyers are officially back in the market, and momentum is building.”
Final Thoughts
Thank you for taking the time to read this market update. As always, our team at Five Market Realty is here to help you navigate buying or selling in the Athens or Oconee area. If you need personalized insights, feel free to reach out.
If you’re considering buying, selling, or investing, or are in the market for luxury properties in Athens, GA, the team at 5Market Realty is here to guide you through current conditions.
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